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A few Trump promises when elected.
‘Build a wall’ — and make Mexico pay for it
Trump announced his candidacy with the promise
"to build a great, great wall on our southern border" and "have
Mexico pay for that wall," and has repeated the call with conviction and
consistency. But even his supporters have expressed skepticism that this
centerpiece promise will see the light of day. An actual wall will be extremely
costly, and it remains to be seen how Trump would force Mexico to pay for it.
"There
are some that hear this is going to be 1,200 miles from Brownsville to El Paso,
30-foot high, and listen, I know you can’t do that," former Texas Gov.
Rick Perry said recently. (Perry once denounced Trump but has since endorsed
him.)
Temporarily
ban Muslims from entering the United States
Following the December 2015
shooting in San Bernardino, Calif., Trump called for "a total and complete
shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country’s
representatives can figure out what is going on."
The next day, Trump admitted
that details "would have to worked out" and said it wouldn’t apply to
all Muslims, but remained vague on the timeline or the exemptions.
Scholars were divided on whether banning people of an entire
faith would violate the constitution.
In early May, Trump told the New York Times the ban would be in
place by the end of his first 100 days in office. But on Fox News Radio a few
days later, he said that it was "just a suggestion."
A month later, herecommitted to the ban, tweaking it to now encompass immigrants from
"nations tied to Islamic terror."
‘Bring
manufacturing (jobs) back’
Trump has said he will
revitalize manufacturing in various iterations (i.e. "I’m going to be the greatest jobs president God ever created")
and laid out how in his June 28 speech on the economy.
"I
am going to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (and)
I’m going tell our NAFTA partners that I intend to immediately renegotiate the
terms of that agreement to get a better deal for our workers," he said.
"I will use every lawful presidential power to remedy trade disputes,
including the application of tariffs."
But most experts say that Trump wouldn’t be able to bring back
all 4 million lost manufacturing jobs, which have been declining since the 1940s,
well before the modern era of free trade deals and China’s economic rise.
"The short answer is
that a small number of manufacturing jobs could be brought back, but probably
at enormous cost," Alan Blinder,
a Princeton University economist who specializes in employment and trade
and member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisors.
Susan
Houseman, an economist with the W.E. Upjohn Institute, commended some of
Trump’s proposals but said the issue is way more complex than Trump describes.
Larry Moser, president of the
Reshoring Initiative, is more optimistic that Trump could deliver, but said
Trump would have to be in it for the long haul: "You can’t do it in a day,
you can’t do it a year. I’d be delighted if we can do it in a decade or
two."
Impose
tariffs on goods made in China and Mexico
Warren Maruyama, a former
general counsel to the U.S. Trade Representative under Presidents George W.
Bush and Barack Obama, told us President Trump would have the authority under a
variety of trade statutes to impose higher tariffs. Hal Shapiro, an attorney
specializing in international trade practice, pointed to Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 which gives
the president the power to impose retaliatory tariffs on countries that violate
trade agreements or engage in unfair trade practices under.
Renegotiate
or withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement and Trans-Pacific
Partnership
Trump
has been most critical of NAFTA and TPP, pinning them to Clinton and past and future
job losses. President Trump would have the authority to bow out of the North American Free
Trade Agreement and the Trans Pacific Partnership. But such a move may not
increase American manufacturing jobs; an expert told us that leverage works in
both directions. "Countries like Mexico and Canada would have a list of
things they’d want from the United States," Alan Wolff, a former U.S. deputy trade
representative under President Jimmy Carter. "These are balanced,
hard-to-negotiate agreements."
‘Full repeal of Obamacare’ and replace it with
a market-based alternative
Trump’s call to repeal Obamacare and replace it with a marketplace
alternative is popular among rank-and-file Republicans.
Larger majorities in Congress would be needed for repeal.
"If
a Trump win is accompanied by Republican control of both houses of Congress,
then some significant rollback is feasible and likely," said John
McDonough, a health policy professor at Harvard University.
Renegotiate
the Iran deal
Similarly, Trump has a shot
at delivering on his promise to "renegotiate with Iran"
even though Iran has said it won’t revisit the issue. Mark
Dubowitz, executive director of the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of
Democracies, sees Iran’s attitude as posturing and pointed out that there’s
precedent for a follow-up talk.
"The Iranians are continuing
to negotiate, demanding significant economic concessions Trump could
renegotiate a better deal."
Leave Social Security as is
Trump has said repeatedly
that voters like Social Security, so it should be left alone. Unlike most of his
primary rivals, Trump vowed to leave the retirement age and
benefits intact.
Beyond calling for a crackdown on fraud and
waste, Trump hasn’t specified how exactly he would save the program. He claims
that his economic proposals would preserve Social Security by "making the
country rich again," though that’s not supported by multiple analyses.
Trump’s commitment to this
promise may also be wavering. His policy advisor Sam Clovis told Reuters in May that Trump would be
open to changes to Social Security if elected.
Cut
taxes
Under Trump’s proposed tax reforms,
everyone would indeed get a cut. (The top 0.1 percent would receive more tax relief than the
bottom 60 percent of taxpayers combined.)
Trump’s plan would bloat the federal deficit by at least $10 trillion over the next
decade, even if you factor in economic growth. This makes his promise of
protecting Social Security harder to keep, given the program is one of the
biggest line items in the budget.
On average, experts scored the Trump tax plan’s chances of
passing as a D. The campaign has said the details of his tax plan are subject to change,
and would soon announce a new policy. It hasn’t yet done so.
Trump himself put it best in
February: "Everything is negotiable."
