Monday, December 7, 2015

Will the RNC Change Rule 40 Or Try to Broker A Convention to Keep Trump from Being Nominee?

The most recent brokered Convention nominees were Adlai Stevenson at the 1952 Democratic Convention and Thomas Dewey at the 1948 Republican Convention when the GOP nominated Thomas E. Dewey for president after three rounds of voting. 
Image result for rnc 2016 convention
There was a minor kafuffle between Ford and Reagan in 1976, but Ford went on to win the nomination on the first ballot.
In United States politics, a brokered convention is a situation in which no single candidate has secured a pre-existing majority of delegates (whether those selected by primary elections and caucuses, or super delegates) prior to the first official vote for a political party's presidential candidate at its nominating convention.
Once the first ballot, or vote, has occurred, and no candidate has a majority of the delegates' votes, the convention is then considered brokered; thereafter, the nomination is decided through a process of alternating political horse-trading, and additional re-votes.[1][2][3][4] In this circumstance, all regular delegates (who, previously, may have been pledged to a particular candidate according to rules which vary from state to state) are "released," and are able to switch their allegiance to a different candidate before the next round of balloting. It is hoped that this 'freedom' will result in a re-vote resulting in a clear majority of delegates for one candidate.
Super delegate votes are counted on the first ballot. Although the term "brokered convention" is sometimes used to refer to a convention where the outcome is decided by super delegate votes rather than pledged delegates alone, this is not the original sense of the term. Like a brokered convention, the potentially decisive role played by super delegates can often go against the popular vote from the primaries and caucuses.
As they say down south, ‘maybe it’s time to throw the dead cat on the table.’
Because of GOP Party Rules there is a complicated set of calculations that goes into the mix of voting delegates. Proportionally provisioned delegates and percentages have been formulated to get down to the numbers needed to capture the nomination. See listing here:
However, RNC Rule 40 is definitely hanging out there until one candidate reaches a win in 8 state Primaries.
Officially, it’s Rule 40 in the RNC handbook and it states that any candidate for president “shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states” before their name is presented for nomination at the national convention.
In a scenario with a commanding front-runner, this doesn’t seem like a high threshold to cross. But with the absence of an heir apparent standard-bearer and the most wide open nomination battle in decades looming, some RNC members think Rule 40 could crack open the door to the possibility of a convention floor fight. The theory: If no one candidate has secured eight states, it invites a free-for-all without a reason to get out. Conversely, if multiple candidates garner eight victories and accrue hundreds of delegates, each could claim a right to soldier on. 
Due to today’s media and technology, a brokered convention is a fantasy. It would be both the colorful, drama seeking media and a never ending political chattering class dream.
A brokered political convention, one where there is no clear nominee heading into a political party’s national convention, is something political pundits like to talk about but which hasn’t been a reality for decades (Adlai Stevenson’s nomination by Democrats in 1952 was the last truly brokered convention. A GOP new rule 40 adopted in the last presidential cycle to protect Mitt Romney’s nomination from insurgent Ron Paul supporters could backfire on the party, leading to a brokered convention in 2016.
RNC has to follow these rules until they convene again to make new rules in 2016.
How unlikely is all this? RNC members as saying that some candidate will emerge in time for the convention with majority support in the requisite eight states, but they are also saying the GOP will go to any lengths to assure that Donald J. Trump is not the nominee. Many states moving to winner-take-all. But even in winner-take-all situations, RNC rules state that a candidate can only be given all of a state’s delegates if he or she gets more than 50 percent.

The GOP facing deep divides within the base, and with no clear candidate for 2016, can any one candidate hope to get a majority (not, mind you, a plurality) in eight states before the convention? The GOP better cross it’s fingers and pray it happens.